edit SideBar

The Collapse of the Soviet Empire

<< Back to "FEAR: One minute to midnight"
<< LaRouche as "World' s best forecaster" (ever)?

But by far the more important reason for the readjustment of the past
is the need to safeguard the infallibility of the Party.
It is not merely that speeches, statistics and records
of every kind must be constantly brought up to date in order
to show that the predictions of the Party were in all cases right.
It is also that no change in doctrine
or in political alignment can ever be admitted.
Nineteen Eighty-Four, by George Orwell

"...the public record shows that I am probably the world' s best forecaster living during the past 40 years..." (14)

Well, let's have a look at his "public record"...


LaRouche says the U.S are crumbling:

Back cover of LaRouche's book "Will the Soviets Rule During the 1980s?" showing two comparative charts (U.S. vs. U.R.S.S. ) : the number of scientists & engineers and the steel production.


Well, all of this goes in direct contradiction with what Ronald Reagan said in 1982:

"I believe we live now at a turning point. [...] It also is in deep economic difficulty. The rate of growth in the national product has been steadily declining since the fifties and is less than half of what it was then.
The dimensions of this failure are astounding: a country which employs one-fifth of its population in agriculture is unable to feed its own people. [...] The decay of the Soviet experiment should come as no surprise to us. " Have a look here


FACTS: Chernenko dies and is replaced by Mikhail Gorbachev as general secretary of the Communist Party; Andrey Gromyko becomes president. Gorbachev announced that the Soviet economy was stalled and that reorganization was needed. He begins an anti-alcohol campaign and promulgates the policies of openness, or Glasnost, and restructuring, or Perestroika.

"No to the Evil Empire," said this poster circulated by the LaRouche's Patriots for Germany party shortly after its founding in 1985.


The "Crumbling Empire" theory is seen by LaRouche as Kissingerian/British/Zionist propaganda. He states the Soviet empire is NOT crumbling, but the United States are. . .:

"Instead of starting from the facts, official estimates start from some wishful doctrine, such as Henry A. Kissinger's popular, but fraudulent insistence that "the Soviet empire is crumbling." Facts which can be arranged to support such wishful views are arranged accordingly ; facts which directly contradict those views vanish mysteriously during the process of writing and editing the official estimates." (...)
"All those who echo Henry A. Kissinger, in babbling the falsehood, that the "Soviet empire is crumbling," and so forth, should be disregarded or jailed, as proper statutes may prescribe for such case. Soviet society is by no means "crumbling;" it is the NATO Alliance which is already crumbling..." (4)
"All the wishful chattering about "the crumbling Soviet empire," "years required before the new leadership is sufficiently consolidated to take bold actions," and so forth, are merely wishful fantasies, fantasies often nourished by well-calculated Soviet disinformational leaks." (8)

The authors of that report (p.85) also echoe here a comment LaRouche made at an ICLC conference that year:

"Some go further down the path of insanity, to prattle that the Russians are doomed as a power, precisely because they insist on maintaining such out-moded productive capacity. For these cultists, the destruction of the Russian empire is assured because they insist on maintaining industrial production. They are so blinded by their own delusions that they overlook the simple fact that it is the United States which has become the "crumbling empire." (8)

Chart published in "Global Showdown", p. 260, similar to the 1979 book "Will the Soviets Rule During the 1980s?".



FACTS: Perestroika and its attendant radical reforms were enunciated at the XXVIIth Party Congress. Nonetheless, many found the pace of reform too slow.
Chernobyl disaster.
Intellectual Andrei Sakharov was invited to return to Moscow by Gorbachev in December after six years of internal exile in Gorky. During the same month, however, there are signs of the nationalities problem: riots in Kazakhstan.
LaRouche starts his anti-Gorbachev campaign, calling him the "Man with the Mark of the Beast"...

...and insists: "No crumbling empire!":

"It is not the Muscovite empire that is crumbling, but our own. True, the Russian system does not actually work by Western standards; excepting short-lived reforms by Peter the Great and Alexander II, it never did. Moscow could prevail only if we virtually destroyed ourselves, which is what Moscow has always believed, essentially , since before Ivan Grozny. Like ancient Rome, and Byzantium afterward, what might doom us is our propensity to destroy ourselves, by refusing to consider abandoning policy-matrices which a rational mind would view as massively discredited." (9)


FACTS: Soviet Union and US agree to scrap intermediate-range nuclear missiles; Boris Yeltsin dismissed as Moscow party chief for criticising slow pace of reforms. The Central Committee Plenum in January would see the crystallization of Gorbachev's political reforms, including proposals for multi-candidate elections and the appointment of non-Party members to government positions. Gorbachev rehabilitated many opponents of Stalin.

June 12: US president Ronald Reagan, standing before the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, asked Gorbachev to "tear down this wall!" Have a look here

See? A perfect example of how the Soviet Empire is crumbling!
Source: NEW SOLIDARITY, February 9, 1987


December 1987

Contradicting R. Reagan, LaRouche says Moscow seeks to take down the Berlin Wall and "Finlandize" West Germany...":

"On the basis of such and additional evidence at hand, we were virtually certain that the Soviets intended to escalate a confrontation over the status of West Berlin itself Moscow would probably move toward taking down the "Berlin Wall," at least politically -- as part of East Germany's process of takeover of the entirety of the city."
"The Soviet confrontation in Berlin has become integral to Soviet efforts to bring West Germany into a process of "Finlandization," with the lure of gradual reunification of Germany as bait." (10)


FACTS: Gorbachev replaces Gromyko as president; challenges nationalists in Kazakhstan, the Baltic republics, Armenia and Azerbaijan; special Communist Party conference agrees to allow private sector. Gorbachev's introduction of glasnost, which gave new freedoms to the people, such as a greater freedom of speech. This was a radical change. The press became far less controlled, and thousands of political prisoners and many dissidents were released. The Law on Cooperatives enacted in May was perhaps the most radical of the economic reforms during the early part of the Gorbachev era. For the first time since Vladimir Lenin's New Economic Policy, the law permitted private ownership of businesses in the services, manufacturing, and foreign-trade sectors.

At this point, feeling the change of wind of History, LaRouche makes a bold move, catching by surprise all his followers...:

Oct. 12, 1988

He gives a "historical" press conference at the Kempinski Hotel in Berlin where he announced the possible reunification of Germany because of an "unprecedented Food Crisis"

"I base this possibility (of reunification, note) upon the reality of a terrible worldwide food crisis which has erupted during the past several months, and will dominate the world's politics for at least two years to come."
"The economy of the Soviet bloc is a terrible, and worsening failure. [...] Despite all attempts at structural reforms, and despite any amount of credits supplied from the West, the Soviet bloc economy as a whole has reached the critical point, that, in its present form, it will continue to slide downhill from here on, even if the present worldwide food crisis had not erupted." (13)

IN FACT, Ronald Reagan made such a "prediction" (reunification of Germany ) back in... 1982 and repeated it in 1987! Have a look here

HOWEVER, LaRouche warns there won't be peace between the US and Soviet Union (sic!) in the coming 30-40 years...

"I do not foresee the possibility of genuine peace between the United States and Soviet Union earlier than thirty or forty years still to come. The best we can do in the name of peace, is to avoid a new general war between the powers." (13)

And here comes LaRouche's necessary Orwellian process of rewriting (his) past ... in order to "show that the predictions of the Party were in all cases right", as Orwell wrote in his Nineteen Eight-Four novel.

LaRouche LIED when he claimed he predicted a 1988 breakdown of USSR... back in 1985 !

"Back in spring 1985, LaRouche predicted a 1988 breakdown of the Soviet and East bloc economies under Mikhail Gorbachov's policies. This analysis was reported and summarized in a widely circulated, 366-page Special Report, Global Showdown, published by EIR on July 24, 1985. That forecast of a 1988 Soviet economic crisis of the type now occurring, was based upon a study of what LaRouche labeled "Soviet Plan A," the model of perestroika followed by the Gorbachov leadership so far. In spring 1985, LaRouche estimated that the kind of "forced-draft" military buildup designed by Yuri Andropov and Marshal Nikolai Ogarkov would exhaust the Soviet and East bloc economies over a period of approximately five years. Since Andropov had set the program into operation as soon as Leonid Brezhnev died, that meant that 1988 was the crucial year to be watched." (2)

Read what LaRouche really said in 1985 about the "crumbling of the Soviet Empire"...

This lie has become the "official truth" ever since...


LaRouche says he predicted a 1989 breakdown of USSR in 1985 but also ... as early as 1982-83!

"The July 1985 special strategic report Global Showdown featured the first public presentation of my forecast of a probable 1989 breakdown of the Soviet economy. Nineteen eighty-nine has arrived, and so has that breakdown. As I warned in 1985, it is that breakdown which could make it even probable that Moscow will launch general war even as early as sometime during The Great Crisis of 1989-1992. I had presented the same forecast already in a private memorandum, early in 1983. This occurred in the last months of a more than year-long 1982-1983, back-channel discussion which I conducted with Soviet officials on behalf of certain circles in the U.S. government." (5)

Despite this orwellian "forecast," it is interesting to give here an idea of the line the LaRouche's organization was still defending, just a few weeks before the fall of the Berlin Wall ...

Oct. 6, 1989 (EIR): LaRouche "expert" Gabrielle Liebig writes in her article "Moscow delivers 'pre-war' threat to West Germany":

"The chief issue in Vienna is a stepwise withdrawal of foreign troops from Europe -- i.e., the pullout of the U.S. troops. This will also be the actual theme of the planned summit meeting between Bush and Mikhail Gorbatchev next spring. And the main topic of a "European summit meeting" a la Reykjavik which the Soviets have repeatedly proposed for sometime next year, would be nothing but this: a Europe entirely under Soviet domination."

Oct. 20, 1989 (EIR): LaRouche Soviet block "expert" Konstantin George writes in his "Pre-war dynamic accompanies Soviet breakdown crisis":

"If one were to believe U.S. President Bush and his administration, the Soviet threat has somehow miraculously "vanished" during 1989. [..] The 1989 edition of Soviet Military Power, reflecting the worse-than-Neville-Chamberlain appeasement syndrome of the Bush administration, stated that "the Soviet threat . . . is now perhaps the lowest it has ever been since the postwar period began." [...] The entire Soviet package of "troops reductions," both unilateral, and reciprocal ones via agreements with NATO, is worse than a fraud. It is a crucial component of a crash plan by the Soviet Military Command to bring the entire Soviet armed forces to full war readiness in the next two years, and part and parcel of Moscow's real new doctrine, a deadly new offensive doctrine. This is the reality, and not the conforting and conciously false assertions appearing in Soviet Military Power. This crash plan is itself a crucial war readiness component of the unfolding decisive phase of what knowledgeable Western military experts refer as the "Ogarkov War Plan."

Nov. 9, 1989:

Fall of the Berlin Wall.


LaRouche says "his" SDI cracked the Soviet empire (no "Food Crisis" anymore!)

"For example, in October 1988, I gave an address in the Kempinski-Bristol Hotel in West Berlin as a part of the 1988 election campaign -- broadcast later throughout the United States -- in which I forecast the imminence of the circumstances in which Berlin might become again the capital of a united Germany. This had been in the wind since 1986. What caused it? The SDI. What caused it? Well, in a larger sense, I caused it. Well, here I sit in jail, as a reward for setting into motion the process which successfully cracked the Soviet-Communist empire, without war." (6)


LaRouche confirms his lie he warned of a 1988 breakdown of USSR ... back in 1982-83 !

"At the same time [in 1982-83, note], I warned the Soviets, that if they rejected my policy as I proposed would become Reagan's policy, and if they continued with their alternative to my policy proposal, then within about five years or say the five year half-life of their capital cycle, the Russian and Soviet economies would break down beginning with an inevitable breakdown in eastern Europe, the Warsaw pact countries, which would start a chain reaction leading to the collapse of the Russian economy. It didn' t happen quite in 1988, but it did happen in 1989." (3)
"During that February [of 1983, note] meeting with a Soviet representative, in which they and I discussed the Soviet rejection of the proposal, I warned that such a rejection would be a mistake because if the Soviet Union were to attempt to maintain a military-strategic posture in opposition to the kind of proposal I was offering, within approximately five years, the Soviet economy would collapse, a collapse which I indicated would begin in Eastern Europe with the breakdown of the weak points in Eastern Europe, which would mean a chain-reaction breakdown of the Soviet economy itself. Well, it did not happen in exactly five years from 1988, but it did happen in a little over six years (1989 rather than 1988)" (7)

. . . and cracked the Soviet empire !

"(We changed the course of history through the use of an idea,) the idea which became known as the SDI. {It was the idea which I personally conveyed} into the Reagan administration and into these discussions with the Soviet highest levels, which brought about the economic and correlated political collapse of the Soviet strategic posture." (7)


LaRouche lyingly states he warned of a 1988 breakdown of USSR during the 1984 election-campaign

"...beginning the 1984 election-campaign, I made public my continuing expectation, that the Soviet-bloc economy would enter a chain-reaction collapse beginning approximately 1988,..." (11)

...and warns of the crumbling of all our civilization before the 2000 US presidential nomination

"I warn, that the U.S.A. must now succeed in developing a certain pathway in U.S.-China partnership, or all of civilization will be in the process of crumbling at some time before the year “2000” U.S. presidential nomination." (11)


LaRouche repeats his lie that he predicted the collapse of the Soviet Empire in 1984.

"... the collapse of the Soviet empire was guaranteed, as LaRouche forecast in 1984, and again in a now-famous October 1988 speech in West Berlin, in which he anticipated the fall of the Berlin Wall a year later." (12)

Yet, some people still believe he predicted the collapse of Soviet Union!!

Berlin, 9 November 1989
For this 20th anniversary celebration, Laroucheplanet sends a "Goodbye Lyn!"
(A reference to the German film "Goodbye Lenin!" )

The fact is that LaRouche's intentions are NOT to convince anybody except his own adepts who are poorly informed about international affairs! His repeated "end-of-the-world"/ Armageddon Doom prophet predictions serve three purposes: 1/ To keep the "hysteria/fear" levels high in his organization, 2/ To present himself as a Genius/Prophet/Savior who can not only "see" the upcoming catastrophe but (thank God or... LaRouche?) has the solution for it! 3/ Since all of his "predictions" were WRONG, this is to test his adepts' blind faith and force them into this practice of collective "self-brainwashing" called AMNESIA. Forget about the previous (failed) predictions, they NEVER existed and if needed, History could be re-written. This is the "Orwellian" side of the LaRouche organization... What is important is to BELIEVE LAROUCHE WAS ALWAYS RIGHT.

Is LaRouche Ronald Reagan's "poodle" or just an opportunist who didn't want to lose his face?:

Lyndon LaRouche and Ronald Reagan in 1980 at a National Rifle Association candidates debate in New Hampshire.

Here is Reagan's own "prediction" he gave in a speech addressed at the British House of Commons on June 8, 1982...

"Speaking for all Americans, I want to say how very much at home we feel in your house. Every American would, because this is, as we have been so eloquently told, one of democracy's shrines. Here the rights of free people and the processes of representation have been debated and refined. [...] Mrs. Thatcher said then that she hoped I was not distressed to find staring down at me from the grand staircase a portrait of His Royal Majesty King George III. She suggested it was best to let bygones be bygones, and in view of our two countries' remarkable friendship in succeeding years, she added that most Englishmen today would agree with Thomas Jefferson that a little rebellion now and then is a very good thing. "

So was Ronald Reagan a "British agent"?...\\ Here he goes on:

"Well, this is precisely our mission today: to preserve freedom as well as peace. It may not be easy to see; but I believe we live now at a turning point.
In an ironic sense Karl Marx was right. We are witnessing today a great revolutionary crisis, a crisis where the demands of the economic order are conflicting directly with those of the political order. But the crisis is happening not in the free, non-Marxist West, but in the home of Marxist-Leninism, the Soviet Union. It is the Soviet Union that runs against the tide of history by denying human freedom and human dignity to its citizens. It also is in deep economic difficulty. The rate of growth in the national product has been steadily declining since the fifties and is less than half of what it was then."

...not exactly what LaRouche was saying, was it?

"The British people know that, given strong leadership, time and a little bit of hope, the forces of good ultimately rally and triumph over evil. Here among you is the cradle of self-government, the Mother of Parliaments. Here is the enduring greatness of the British contribution to mankind, the great civilized ideas: individual liberty, representative government, and the rule of law under God."

Ok, Ronald Reagan was definitely a "British agent"! ( Full speech to the House of Commons, June 8, 1982. )

Moreover, on June 12, 1987 Reagan, standing before the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, asked Gorbachev to "tear down this wall!":

"General Secretary Gorbachev, if you seek peace, if you seek prosperity for the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, if you seek liberalization: Come here to this gate! Mr. Gorbachev, open this gate! Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" [...]
"As I looked out a moment ago from the Reichstag, that embodiment of German unity, I noticed words crudely spray-painted upon the wall, perhaps by a young Berliner: "This wall will fall. Beliefs become reality." Yes, across Europe, this wall will fall."

... which it did on Nov. 9, 1989. (Well done Ron and this anonymous young Berliner... better than Lindy!)

Between the time of that Reagan speech and LaRouche's "historical prediction" at the Kempinski hotel, the larouchies were still campaigning against the (kissingerian) partisans of the so-called "Crumbling empire" hoax!



4. Preface to "Global Showdown, The Russian Imperial War Plan for 1988; by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.; EIR Special Report; July 24, 1985.
5. THE GREAT CRISIS OF 1989-1992; by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.; Pamphlet; July 4, 1989.
6. LAROUCHE'S SDI POLICY CRACKED THE SOVIET EMPIRE; by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.; EIR;, June 29, 1990.
7. MANKIND'S FUTURE LIES WITH THOSE WHO RESOLVE TO CHANGE THE UNDERLYING AXIOMS OF OUR SOCIETY; by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.; Keynote Session Prsentation for ICLC Conference; March 19, 1993.
8. THE RECOVERY THAT NEVER WAS: THE BREAKING INTERNATIONAL CRISIS; by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.; in EIR Quarterly Economic Report; April 15, 1985.
9. WHY THE BANKING SYSTEMS WILL EXPERIENCE A BLOW-OUT IN 1986-87; by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.; EIR; June 27, 1986.
10. BEHIND THE BERLIN RIOTS OF MAY 1, 1987: ORGARKOV'S INTEGRATION OF IRREGULAR AND REGULAR WARFARE; by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.; EIR Special Report "Global Showdown Escalates, The zero option and the Berlin crisis of 1987;" December 7, 1987.
11. It Is Now Nine Years Later; by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.; EIR; Oct. 12, 1997
12. "The `Ignoble Liars' Behind Bush's Deadly Iraq War"; by Jeffrey Steinberg; EIR; April 18, 2003
13. |The Oct. 12, 1988's LaRouche press conference at West Berlin’s Kempinski Bristol Hotel; EIR; April 14, 2005
14. THE COMING DISINTEGRATION OF FINANCIAL MARKETS, by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.; EIR; June 24, 1994. Since this was written in 1994, that means LaRouche considers himself the best economic forecaster since... 1954!

Edit - History - Print - Recent Changes - Search
Page last modified on January 19, 2013, at 04:44 PM