Two further qualifications on the third variant may be in order as explanation. First, this variant objectively implies something in the order ot magnitude ot a quarter-century ot humanist industrial capitalism in the OECD countries. In short, a generation. When one considers the intluence ot the rock-drug counterculture and related existentialist self-degradation among the present generation ot youth, the present generation ot youth is itself an ugly scar upon humanity, which a generation will be needed to heal. The idea of this youth generation becoming a force for socialist transformation beggars the powers of imagination. Second, related to the first point, under humanist development of the OECD countries the question of socialist transformation is a subjective one, rather than an objective issue of capitalist crises. Under those conditions, the human race will make a socialist transformation as soon as it grows up.
The decisive objective element in that process will be the course of intellectual development in the present socialist sector. As the Comecon nations progress culturally at a more or less rapid pace together with economic progress, that will be, together with political transformations in the developing sector, the principle environmental influence affecting the evolving views of socialist transformation within the OECD countries. Since the Comecon nations also have a nasty youth-generation problem, only significantly less acute than our own, one should not be entirely optimistic concerning desirable rates of cultural progress in that quarter.
Finally, however, I was obliged to put the point in its more pessimistic light. The question before us is not immediately capitalist or socialist - at least not in the OECD countries. By putting the question of socialism to the beginning of the next century or so, we force concentration upon the immediate tasks before us. At best - the third alternative - we have a difficult task before us. In balance it is better to be pessimistic than to attempt to recruit on the basis of prettier pictures.
What must be understood is that the human race doesn't have much of a chance for the third alternative except as we play a role of increasing leadership, as we begin to bring the political labor movement in particular under our intellectual influence. We must take a posture of recruiting to the Labor Party on that basis, without concerning ourselves as to what exact week that influx will begin to be noticeable. We have to put our internal house in order for a recruitment drive.
Perhaps we shall not recruit in the period ahead? Than, I assure you, we have nothing to worry about; we shall all soon be dead. Under that combination of conditions in which we do not begin to recruit soon and significantly, the policies ruling the USA and Western Europe will be policies Hell-bent tor early thermonuclear war - no matter that the poor tools leading governments think to the contrary. It the emerging policies ot OECD nations are sane, we shall recruit very soon.
Let us consider once again the crucial point concerning war and peace. Let us remember the lesson of the Hitler regime.
The Soviet Union is on the upswing in economic development and in strategic military capabilities. If the OECD countries follow an IMF "bail-out" course, with Arbeitsbeschaffung and no all-out nuclear energy program, the industrial potential of the OECD countries will collapse rapidly, widening the gap, irreparably between the OECD and the Warsaw Pact military capabilities. Like the Hitler regime, which imposed upon Germany a policy like that intrinsic to IMF "bail-out" schemes, the point will soon be reached - as Nazi Germany faced during 1936-1937, at which either foreign looting is launched or the military and economic capabilities simultaneously collapse. At that point, the OECD countries, if following a Nazi-modelled policy - i.e., an IMF "bail-out" policy - will be plunged into a military collision course with the Warsaw Pact, no matter what they presently may think to the contrary. Hence, either we win or Western Europe will be half-destroyed and overrun within the immediate term. Either we recruit very soon or the conditions which prevent recruiting will certify the inevitability of early thermonuclear war.
We must win; otherwise the human race as a whole hasn't much of a chance. That poor fool criticizing US! You are carrying that poor, ungrateful wretch on your back! Until he admits that, where is his honor, his intregrity? What is his opinion worth? My task is to develop and persue any means by which we enhance our capability of winning; the human race depends on that, whether they know it or not. What shall we do; shall we say to humanity in general, "You are too stupid to survive. Therefore we shall not waste our efforts on such ingrateful, stupid creatures?" We have no choice. Stupid, vicious, or not, we are obliged to save those poor wretches if we can.
In that process, if the human race is capable of surviving, we shall soon recruit in significant amount. We must therefore put our house in order for that purpose. That is the purpose of "The ABC of Socialism".